On 23 October 2017, NSA will host Dr. Peter Krause from Boston College for the Global Connections Speaker Series. Dr. Krause will give a talk titled after his book by the same name, Rebel Power: Why National Movements Compete, Fight, and Win. In his talk, Krause will discuss why some national movements have independent states today (Israelis and Algerians), while others do not (Kurds and Palestinians. Using evidence gathered from fieldwork, archival research, and more than 150 interviews with participants who participated in four national movements (Palestinian, Zionist, Algerian, and Irish), the author will also provide and support his theory regarding the causes of terrorism.
To read more about Dr. Krause, click here.
To read more about his book, click here.
More than half a decade after people across the Middle East poured into the streets to demand change, hopes for democracy in the region have all but disappeared in a maelstrom of violence and renewed state repression. In his talk, Dr. Steven A. Cook, the author of False Dawn: Protest, Democracy, and Violence in the New Middle East and Eni Enrico Mattei senior fellow for Middle East and Africa studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, will explain how those moments of empowerment, freedom, and dignity that began in places like Tunisia’s Sidi Bouzid and Egypt’s Tahrir Square turned out differently than most observers expected. According to Dr. Cook in False Dawn, “Looking back, it all seems dream-like. . . . Egypt’s Facebookers and bloggers, Mohammed al-Bouazizi, Khaled Said, Tahrir Square, brave Libyan fighters advancing on Tripoli, the Girl in the Blue Bra, and Gezi Park’s girl in the red dress are of a recent but seemingly distant past—a gauzy sequence of determination, defiance, hope, and activism that has not been extinguished as much as eclipsed by political uncertainty, instability, and at times unspeakable violence.”
For Dr. Cook’s bio, click here.
Scholars of security studies are well poised to answer the question: “What do we know about war?” They are less self-reflective about a related question: “What wars do we know about?” Scholars lavish attention on some conflicts while others are relegated to the dustbin of history. This likely has important consequences not just for the bounded nature of our scholarly understanding of conflict and conflict processes, but also for the mental models that inform policymakers’ and practitioners’ day-to-day work.
In this talk as part of the Global Connections Speaker Series, Dr. Hendrix discusses the powerful influence of the “streetlight effect”—the tendency of scholars to focus on particular questions and cases for reasons of convenience and career opportunities, rather than theoretical importance or practical relevance—on security studies and international relations scholarship. The streetlight effect has led scholars and policymakers to focus on particular countries and conflicts at the expense of others, resulting in a biased state of knowledge about conflict processes and outcomes. The talk concludes with recommendations for addressing gaps in both our practical and theoretical knowledge.
For Dr. Hendrix's bio, click here.
In his talk, John Hopkins's Dr. Jakub Grygiel will explore the revisionists who are probing the periphery of U.S. power, careful to avoid a direct confrontation but curious to test the resilience of the American order. Their probing aims to break the alliance system built by the U.S. over the past century along the Eurasian rimland. How the U.S. responds in the next years will shape the behavior of U.S. allies and competitors, and decide the future of American security.
Dr. Jakub Grygiel is the George H.W. Bush Associate Professor at the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University. He is the author of Great Powers and Geopolitical Change.
Kori Schake is a research fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University. In her talk, “Safe Passage: The Transition from British to American Hegemony,” she will discuss how history records only one peaceful transition of hegemonic power: the passage from British to American dominance of the international order. What made that transition uniquely cooperative and nonviolent? Does it offer lessons to guide policy as the United States faces its own challengers to the order it has enforced since the 1940s? To answer these questions, Kori Schake explores nine points of crisis or tension between Britain and the United States, from the Monroe Doctrine in 1823 to the establishment of the unequal “special relationship” during World War II.
To attend please send an email to email@example.com
For a link to her book, Safe Passage: The Transition from British to American Hegemony, click here.
On 11 July 2017 (Tuesday), Dr. Robert Springborg will examine the perilous state of Egypt today. Based on his forthcoming book, Springborg argues that the accumulated failures under military rule, particularly since the coup that brought General Abd al-Fattah al-Sisi to power in 2013, have become so grave that the very nation-state is at risk of collapsing. Given that Egypt as been a critical American ally in the Middle East for 40 years, these developments have potentially dire consequences for US national interests in the region.
Springborg is one of America’s top scholars on Egypt and the Middle East. He retired as a Professor of National Security Affairs at NPS in 2013 and spent last year as a Visiting Scholar at Harvard. He is currently a Visiting Professor at King College in London and Research Fellow at the Italian Institute of International Affairs.
To view his CV, click here.
In his talk, Stanford's Dr. Robert Crews will explore the place of Islam in Russian foreign and domestic policy in the Middle East and Central Asia, and examine the role of Russia’s Muslim leadership in projecting Moscow’s authority at home and abroad. In seeking to expand Russian political and economic influence in Syria, Iran, Afghanistan, and the former Soviet states of Central Asia, the Kremlin has turned to the country’s Muslims elites—who claim leadership of a population of more than 20 million Russian Muslims—to serve as intermediaries between these domestic Muslim populations and Muslim countries along the southern frontiers of the former USSR. The talk will investigate the history and contemporary state of relations between the Russian government and the country’s Muslim elites and will highlight the centrality of Islam to ongoing controversies, domestic and international, about Russia’s role as a great power in global affairs.
More information about Dr. Robert Crews, click here.
As part of the Global Connections Speaker Series, NSA will host Dr. Sebastian Elischer of the University of Florida on 25 April 2017. The literature on radical Islam stresses the significance of the Salafi creed for the radicalization of Muslims worldwide. This presentation examines how four states in the francophone Sahel – Niger, Chad, Mauritania, Mali – and two states in East Africa – Kenya and Uganda – have engaged with their Salafi communities since independence and what the long-term consequences of these strategies are. It finds that states that established institutional oversight mechanisms in the Islamic sphere effectively counteracted the spread of political and jihadi Salafism. This presentation examines the origins and the modus operandi of institutional regulation in areas of weak statehood. States that chose inaction, concessions, or repression enabled and contributed the rise of political and jihadi Salafism. These findings challenge conventional assumptions about the inability of weak states to establish state authority and shed new light on the complex relationship between African states and Islam.
For more information about Dr. Elischer, click here.
On 21 April 2017, 1200–1330 in GL-322, Professor David Hendrickson of Colorado College will give a talk titled “Six Lessons from the Founding: A Discourse on Power, Law, Independence, Union, Peace, and Liberty.” Professor Hendrickson is the author of twelve books, including The Republic in Peril: American Empire and the Betrayal of the Liberal Tradition (forthcoming in 2017 by Oxford University Press). As a long-time book review editor for Foreign Affairs, he has read and written about most significant issues in American debates over foreign policy, grand strategy, and national security. His first book, co-written with Robert Tucker, was nominated for the Pulitzer Prize in History in 1990.
On 13 March 2017, NSA will host Dr. Marc Lynch from George Washington University for the Global Connections Speaker Series. Dr. Lynch will give a talk titled after his book by the same name, The New Arab Wars: Anarchy and Uprising in the Middle East. In his talk, Lynch will discuss the hopes raised by the Arab uprisings six years ago, which have collapsed into resurgent authoritarianism, failed states, extremism and civil wars. The author will also explore the causes for the failures of the Arab uprisings and the proxy wars, which have profoundly reshaped the regions politics.
To read more about Dr. Lynch, click here.
To read more about his book, click here.
Dr. Bruce Cumings teaches modern Korean history, international history, and East Asian political economy at the University of Chicago, where he has taught since 1987. He is one of the foremost experts on the Korean War and U.S. security interests in East Asia. On 23 February 2017, he will give a talk at NSA titled “On the Futility of U.S. Policy toward North Korea.”
In his talk, he will discuss how the U.S. has pursued four methods to try to influence North Korea. The U.S. pursued sanctions and non-recognition for seven decades. In the fall of 1950, it pursued regime change, which ended in a debacle. This was again pursued by the George W. Bush administration. The Clinton, Obama, and Park Geun-hye administrations (among others) were occupied with patiently waiting for the regime to collapse. Finally, the U.S. has employed direct talks, which is the only method to work for a while; however, direct talks have been suspended for the last five years. What now?
For a link to the short bio on Dr. Cumings, click here.
NSA’s Dr. Ryan Gingeras will be speaking to the Monterey Bay World Affairs Council on “Turkey on the Brink: Assessing the Uncertainties of the Erdogan Era” on 17 February. Dr. Gingeras is the author of several books on the history and politics of the Turkish Republic and the Middle East. In addition, he specializes in issues related to empire, organized crime, nationalism and inter-communal violence in the contemporary the Balkans, Turkey and the North Caucasus. For those wanting lunch, the program begins at noon. For those attending the talk alone, it is 1300–1400. Lunch is $35; auditing the talk is free.
To read more about Dr. Gingeras, click here.
For the reservation form, click here.
Dr. Christopher Darnton of the NSA Department will be speaking on “Ideology, Institutions, and Instability in Contemporary Latin America” at 1300 on 24 January at Rancho Canada in Carmel Valley. Sponsored by the World Affairs Council, the lecture is free and open to the public.
Dr. Darnton’s work focuses on the domestic politics of foreign policy, particularly related to enduring rivalries and conflict resolution, counterterrorism cooperation and alliance management, regional integration, and state-building. A Latin Americanist, his research and teaching emphasize the international politics of the Americas, with particular interest in what new archival evidence reveals about the Cold War era and beyond.
For those who would like to attend a lunch just prior to the lecture, click here for more information.
Title: The Anti-Americanism of President Rodrigo Duterte: Has the 60s Generation Finally Prevailed?
Speaker: Dr. Patricio Abinales
The anti-Americanism of Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte did not just arise out of perceived personal slight or because he took classes under Communist Party of the Philippines Great Leader Jose Ma. Sison. It represents his generations fraught relationship with the United States as a global power. It was a nationalism that was expressed in various ideological forms - from the "constitutional authoritarianism" of President Ferdinand Marcos, to the Maoist Third Worldism of the communist party. It is this nationalism that is now being resurrected by Duterte.
To attend please send an email to firstname.lastname@example.org
Professor Bruce Hoffman, Director of the Center for Security Studies and Program at Georgetown University, will join us on Thursday, November 30th to give a noon talk titled "The Rationality of Terrorism and Other Forms of Political Violence: Lessons from the Jewish Campaign in Palestine, 1944-1947." Professor Hoffman will discuss the Jewish terrorist campaign against the British in Palestine during the 1940s to shed light on the question that if terrorism is as ineffective as many claim, why has it persisted for at least the past wo millennia and indeed has become an increasingly popular means of violent political expression in the 21st Century?
For Professor Bruce Hoffman's biography, please click here.
NSA is hosting a mini-SGL on Tuesday, 29 November at 1500 in GL102.
Admiral (ret.) Marsetio, Indonesian Navy will be visiting NPS on Tuesday, 29 November along with Rear Admiral Amarulla Octavian, Dean of Faculty of Defence Management at the Indonesian Defense University. ADM Marsetio would like to present a brief to students and interested faculty addressing "Indonesia Sea Power and China's Nine Dashed Lines Claim after PCA Arbitration." RADM Octavian will offer an additional brief addressing "Military Sociology: Indonesian Perspective.”
For this briefing, the following subsets of NSA are required to attend (for others it is optional): ALL 682 curriculum, ALL FAO/RAS, ALL 688 curriculum, and ALL Navy students.
The Ultimate Korea Crisis: China, the United States, and the Rush to Secure DPRK WMD
How does China’s rising military capabilities and expanding mission sets impact U.S. security objectives in Northeast Asia? The US strategic community has expended great effort to prepare for contingencies involving the end of the North Korean regime, either due to internal collapse or war. But there is one factor that is missing from even the most comprehensive WMD-E scenarios – the role of China. China may be more actively involved in controlling WMD problems than US planners anticipate; Chinese writings suggest the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) should be prepared to seize control over key nuclear sites, especially those close to their border, to prevent a loose nukes scenario and preempt US action. China could complicate or contribute to US efforts to prevent a North Korean nuclear attack in a conflict, denuclearize the Korean peninsula, and prevent the proliferation of nuclear materials, weapons and expertise. The implications of the US WMD-E mission, and China’s role in the issue, would extend beyond the specific crisis of the North Korean collapse or conflict.
Oriana Skylar Mastro is an assistant professor of security studies at the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University where her research focuses on Chinese military and security policy, Asia-Pacific security issues, war termination, and coercive diplomacy. She is also the 2016-2017 Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. Dr. Mastro also serves as officer in the United States Air Force Reserve, for which she works as a political military strategist at PACAF. Previously, Dr. Mastro was a fellow in the Asia-Pacific Security program at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), a University of Virginia Miller Center National Fellow and a Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Pacific Forum Sasakawa Peace Fellow. Additionally, she has worked on China policy issues at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, RAND Corporation, U.S. Pacific Command, and Project 2049. She holds a B.A. in East Asian Studies from Stanford University and an M.A. and Ph.D in Politics from Princeton University.
Join us for a talk by Dr. Noémie Bouhana on Monday, Novemver 21st at noon.
Explaining Terrorist Propensity Development: A Systemist Perspective
The process of terrorist propensity development, also known as radicalization, is subject to constraints. Individuals are not equally susceptible to propensity change and human environments do not produce or sustain equally the conditions that support the radicalization process, notably the emergence of radicalizing settings. To explain radicalization, we need to understand the mechanisms which govern the interaction of factors of individual vulnerability, exposure and emergence (IVEE) at several levels of analysis. Such a systemist understanding, as opposed to a more traditional risk factor-based outlook, could help explain why some individuals in some environments are more vulnerable or resilient to radicalization at any given time. Findings from the EU-funded FP7 PRIME project on lone actor terrorism are used to illustrate this particular analytical approach. Implications for intervention are discussed.
Noémie Bouhana is Senior Lecturer in Security and Crime Science at University College London, where she leads the Counter-Terrorism Research Group. Her research interests focus on the study of the social ecological processes involved in the emergence of radicalizing settings and the role that these settings play in the individual development of a terrorist propensity. At present, Noémie is Principal Investigator of the €2.9M EU FP7 PRIME project, an international consortium of six European universities carrying out multidisciplinary research on the prevention, interdiction and mitigation of lone actor radicalization and attack behavior. She is also Principal Investigator of the $1M project "The Social Ecology of Radicalization", funded by the US DoD Minerva Initiative, which investigates the 'where' of radicalization in an international comparative perspective. Previous research has been funded by the UK Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (DSTL), the UK Home Office, Office of Security and Counter-Terrorism (OSCT), UK MOD Counter-Terrorism Science and Technology Centre, the UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC), and the US National Institute of Justice (NIJ).
Why do hawkish leaders change course to pursue dovish policies? Ziv argues that conventional international relations theory underestimates the importance of leaders and their personalities, rendering it inadequate for explaining momentous foreign policy shifts. Applying insights from cognitive psychology, Ziv offers an elite-driven explanation of foreign policy change. The author argues that decision makers’ cognitive structure—specifically, their levels of cognitive openness and complexity—is a critical causal variable in determining their propensity to revise their beliefs and pursue new policies. The primary case explored here is that of Israeli statesman Shimon Peres, a longtime security hawk who became champion of Arab-Israeli peacemaking.
For Guy Ziv's short bio, please click here.
Sponsored by the Monterey Bay World Affairs Council, Dr. Michael Glosny (NSA Department) will be discussing his topic, China's Rising Power: The South China Sea. Lunch will start at noon, and the talk will be from 1300-1400.
Lunch is $35, auditing the talk is free. Reservation forms can be found using the link below: