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null Global Connections Speaker Series: How Risky is Popular Dissent?

Date: October 25, 2016 to October 25, 2016
Time: 1200-1300
Location: Glasgow Hall, Room 322

Why do mass killings occur during some popular uprisings but not others? To what degree do characteristics of the uprising itself help to explain (and predict) this variation? In her upcoming Global Connections talk, Dr. Chenoweth will identify the factors associated with mass killings that occur during and after major contentious episodes (MECs). Drawing on data from 1955–2014, she has found that characteristics of the campaigns—such as whether the episode is primarily nonviolent, the elicitation of foreign support for the campaign or the regime, and the behavior of the military during the episode—can play an important role in explaining variation in atrocity onset during the uprisings. Moreover, she has found support for these findings in forecasting out-of-sample mass killing onsets. These findings demonstrate the importance of observing the behavior of various actors in the midst of popular uprisings as a way to better anticipate and prevent atrocities. While campaign-level factors play less of a role in post-conflict mass killings, she has found the duration of the preceding episode continues to influence whether a mass killing takes place after the crisis as well. She will briefly identify the implications of these findings in her talk.


For a bio on Dr. Chenoweth, click here.

 

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